MKKH1213 Risk Assessment & Accident Modeling

Welcome to RAAM…

Hope that you’ll have fun with this class.


Students learn to assess risks associated to safety (e.g. risk of fire and explosion from process plant), health (e.g. risk of occupational disease), and environment (e.g. eco-system risk assessment), security (e.g. risk of terrorist attacks) with emphasis on those that are related to the process industry.  Students build and interpret causal models of risks and test the accuracy of these models against incidence reports. The course includes various accident modelling techniques, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods, tolerability criteria, and mitigating measures.

Learning Outcomes

1. Explain the concept of risks and qualitatively determine the level of risks in various aspects of human life

2. Quantitatively evaluate risks associated to proposed economic activities

3. Construct accident models based on given scenarios

4. Synthesis multiple sources of information to create new insights for solving given problems and generating alternative approaches to problem solving.

5. Communicate effectively with stakeholders, interest groups and regulatory bodies concerned with the hazards and risks posed by natural and man-made events

Course Content

1.0 Introduction to Risks

1.1The search for Safe Zone (Lecture Notes: The Search For Zero Risks)

1.2 Hazards, Risks & Safety (Lecture Notes: Hazard, Risk & Safety)

2.0 Risk Evaluations (Lecture Notes: Risk Evaluation)

3.0 Risk Management (Lecture Notes: Risk Management)

  • Risk Management Procedure
  • Bow-Tie Model

4.0 Accident Models (Lecture Notes: Accident Model)

5. Causal & Frequency 

5.1 Fault Tree Analysis (Lecture Notes: raam-p5-1-fta)

5.2 Fault Tree – Minimum Cutset (Lecture Notes: raam-p5-2-fta-minimal-cutset)

5.4 Fault Tree Quantification (Lecture Notes: raam-p5-3-fta-quantification)

6.0 Consequence Horizon &  Event Tree Analysis (Lecture Notes: raam-p6eta)

7.0 Quantitative Risk Assessment

8.0  Quantifying Human Error (Download Lecture Notes RAAM-P8(Quantifying Human Error))

  • Importance of estimating Human Error probability
  • Human Reliability Analysis
  • Performance Influencing Factors
  • Success Likelihood Method (SLIM)

9.0 Dynamic Risks

Course Content

  1. Marvin Rausand, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications. John Wiley & Sons, 2011. ISBN: 978-0-470-63764-7
  2. Geoff Wells, Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment. IChemE. 2004.